Effects of Dynamic Land Use/Land Cover Change on Flow and Sediment Yield in a Monsoon-Dominated Tropical Watershed

It is widely known that land use/land cover (LULC) changes significantly alter watershed hydrology and sediment yields. The impact, especially on erosion sedimentation, likely to be exacerbated in regions dominated by high rainfall patterns such as monsoons. This study analyzed the hydrological responses of LULC terms streamflow (SF) yield (SY) a monsoon-dominated tropical watershed, Periyar River Watershed (PRW) Kerala, India. drains an area 4793 km2 characterized average monsoon 2900 mm from June November. dynamics were simulated using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for impact assessment at outlet sub-watershed level. Historical data 1988, 1992, 2002, 2016 maximum likelihood method, future projected 2030, 2050, 2075, 2100 Markov chain–cellular automata technique. Between 1988 2016, urban increased 4.13 percent, while plantation forest coverage decreased 1.5 percent. At this rate, 2100, expected grow 16.45% plantations will shrink 13.7% compared 1988. effects these SF SY found minimal outlet; however, spatial scale sub-watersheds, varied up 70% surface runoff 200% SY. These findings highlight potential impacts may contribute development successful LULC-based management strategies prevention flooding loss.